Örvitinn

Tilviljanir, trú og athugasemdaflóð

Fólk á það til að líta framhjá tilviljunum og gera meira úr hlutunum en efni standa til. Góð grein um tilvlijanir á CSICOP vefnum.

Coincidences: Remarkable or Random?

There are two features of coincidences not well known among the public. First, we tend to overlook the powerful reinforcement of coincidences, both waking and in dreams, in our memories. Non-coincidental events do not register in our memories with nearly the same intensity. Second, we fail to realize the extent to which highly improbable events occur daily to everyone. It is not possible to estimate all the probabilities of many paired events that occur in our daily lives. We often tend to assign coincidences a lesser probability than they deserve.

Skeptic's dictionary er líka með umfjöllun um tilviljanir.
Law of Truly Large Numbers

The law of truly large numbers says that with a large enough sample many odd coincidences are likely to happen.

...

On the other hand, you might say that the odds of something happening are a million to one. Such odds might strike you as being so large as to rule out chance or coincidence. However, with over 6 billion people on earth, a million to one shot will occur frequently.

Þetta er orðin ein lengsta athugasemdaromsa sem ég hef séð.

efahyggja
Athugasemdir